Quantum computing promises transformative potential for industries and society by solving complex problems more efficiently than classical computers.
However, challenges like scalability, high error rates, costs, and a skills gap hinder the commercial realisation of quantum computing.
Milestones like IBM’s Flamingo machine and Microsoft’s topological qubits show progress. These advancements, alongside initiatives like the Quantum Benchmarking Initiative, are paving the way for practical applications and greater adoption.
This article explores this cutting-edge technology’s commercialisation journey.
What is quantum computing?
Quantum computing represents a transformative approach to processing information, leveraging the principles of quantum mechanics to perform computations far beyond the capabilities of classical computers. At its core, quantum computing employs quantum bits, or qubits, which can exist in multiple states simultaneously thanks to properties like superposition and entanglement.
This ability allows quantum technologies to solve complex problems more efficiently than traditional binary systems.
The development of fault-tolerant quantum computing is essential for minimising errors and ensuring reliable outcomes. Achieving commercial adoption of quantum computing hinges on increasing qubit counts and reducing error rates, as demonstrated by IBM’s Osprey machine with 433 qubits. Visionary efforts are underway to expand this to a 100,000-qubit machine, promising significant advancements.
As businesses anticipate investing substantial funds into quantum initiatives, integrating these technologies with classical systems marks a pivotal step toward realising practical applications and revealing new possibilities across various fields.
What potential does quantum computing hold for industry and society?
Building on the foundational principles and advancements in quantum computing, the technology’s potential to transform industry and society is becoming increasingly evident.
Quantum technology promises to revolutionise sectors such as drug discovery, where its ability to simulate complex molecular interactions could drastically accelerate the development of new medications. The adoption of quantum computing is gaining momentum, with the market projected to grow from $928.8m in 2022 to $6.5bn by 2030. Companies are already harnessing the quantum advantage through real-world applications.
As tech giants collaborate with startups, developing commercially useful quantum computers becomes a tangible reality, promising profound societal impacts.
What are the main challenges facing the journey to widespread use of quantum technology?
Despite the promising advancements in quantum computing, its journey to widespread use is fraught with numerous challenges that must be addressed to realise its full potential.
One significant hurdle is the scalability and optimisation of quantum computers based on physical qubits, which currently suffer from high error rates and noise, complicating their integration with classical computing systems. The feasibility of building and maintaining these quantum systems is further hampered by the high costs and advanced cooling technologies required.
Additionally, the complexity of programming quantum computers, which necessitates a shift from classical computing paradigms, adds another layer of difficulty. Compounding these technical issues is a pronounced workforce skills gap; the shortage of professionals equipped to propel this technology forward poses a substantial barrier.
Overcoming these challenges is essential for moving quantum technology from research to practical applications and achieving a tangible return on investment, thereby avoiding the “quantum valley of death.”
What have been the key milestones within the quantum industry so far?
The quantum industry has marked several pivotal milestones, propelling it closer to commercial viability.
IBM’s shift from the Heron machine to the Flamingo quantum computer exemplifies progress in scalability, with the aim to increase the gate count considerably by 2028. This effort underscores the industrial feasibility of quantum computing as modular architectures enhance potential applications. Similarly, Microsoft’s exploration of topological qubits, particularly Majorana fermions, promises more stable qubits, an essential step toward practical quantum computing solutions.
D-Wave’s expansion in quantum optimisation offerings demonstrates quantum technology’s growing industrial adoption across various sectors. In addition, the US Department of Defense’s eight-year strategic plan reflects government investment, underscoring the technology’s future potential.
Quantinuum’s roadmap for a fully fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029, in alignment with the DARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative, aims to assess industrial feasibility by 2033, marking a notable stride toward realising quantum computing’s commercial promise.
What’s next on the journey to quantum commercialisation?
How will quantum computing shift from experimental to commercial reality? The path forward involves enhancing quantum machines’ capabilities and ensuring their commercial viability.
IBM’s advancement to the Flamingo machine, with an expected gate count increase from 5,000 to 15,000 by 2028, exemplifies this trajectory. Such developments aim to make quantum systems industrially useful, aligning with the US Department of Defense’s eight-year plan for practical quantum applications.
The Quantum Benchmarking Initiative, involving ten selected companies, will critically assess these machines’ industrial viability by 2033, a pivotal step for broader adoption. As research progresses, demand for these advanced quantum platforms is anticipated to rise, shifting focus from academic research to commercial deployment.
Meanwhile, the ongoing exploration of quantum-safe cryptography addresses quantum security concerns, an essential aspect to eliminate barriers to widespread commercial use. Together, these efforts signify a concerted push toward realising quantum computing’s commercial potential.
Please note, this article will also appear in the 22nd edition of our quarterly publication.
