As clean infrastructure is rolled out in the EU, hydrogen refuelling stations must be distributed according to the same principle in all countries.
However, a study from Chalmers University of Technology points to shortcomings in EU regulations for hydrogen refuelling stations.
Using an advanced model, the researchers demonstrate that the distribution of refuelling stations may be incorrectly dimensioned, leading to losses of tens of millions of euros per year in some countries.
Hydrogen refuelling station requirements don’t meet actual demand
By 2030, EU countries must have built hydrogen refuelling stations at least every 200 kilometres on major roads and one in every urban node.
The aim is to facilitate the introduction of hydrogen-powered transport. This is governed by the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR), which came into force in 2023.
However, based on data from 600,000 freight routes across Europe, the study shows that the requirements do not reflect actual demand in several cases.
By modelling how hydrogen-powered long-haul trucks might operate in 2050, the researchers show not only where demand for hydrogen infrastructure will be highest, but also how current EU rules risk leading to large losses in some countries.
Joel Löfving, doctoral student at the Department of Mechanics and Maritime Sciences at Chalmers, explained: “EU law is based on distance, but traffic volumes differ in other ways between countries. According to our model, France’s capacity needs to be seven times higher in 2050 than what the EU requires by 2030.
“Consequently, the rollout under AFIR works as a first step on the way, but will need to be supplemented.”
However, countries such as Bulgaria, Romania and Greece do not have the same traffic flows, and they are being forced to build infrastructure that is unlikely to be used to the same extent. This may amount to tens of millions a year in investment and operating costs for unused capacity.
The study’s accurate simulation reflects real demand
In addition to considering traffic volumes and distances, the Chalmers study incorporates topographical data from the European Space Agency.
A key insight is that geographical terrain plays a more significant role in energy demand than previously assumed.
“Many models use an average energy demand per kilometre for trucks. However, the demand profile changes significantly when parameters such as gradient and speed are taken into account. This gives you a more accurate basis for where hydrogen refuelling stations may actually be needed,” said Löfving.
The study focused on long-haul traffic (distances of more than 360 kilometres), as shorter distances are likely to be covered by battery-powered goods vehicles in the future.
“A lot of the current research shows that batteries will be able to cover the shorter distances, while alternatives such as hydrogen may be needed as a supplement for long distances,” Löfving commented.
Long-term sustainability of hydrogen infrastructure
The researchers’ model looks further than the 2030 requirements and analyses how investments in hydrogen infrastructure can be sustainable in the long term.
The research has already been used to inform political discussions in both Sweden and the EU on how to plan the rollout of hydrogen infrastructure.
Löfving concluded: “At EU level, we have been able to provide feedback for the evaluation of AFIR that will take place in 2026, and my hope is to influence the development of the law in a way that takes into account each country’s specific circumstances.
“For Sweden, AFIR is a good start, but investing in expensive new technology is always risky. Because the study has a longer time frame, we have been able to contribute to the discussion on how to build an economically sustainable refuelling station network that will eventually make it easier to create a market for heavy hydrogen vehicles.”
