The number of electric vehicles in Africa is expected to double between now and 2050 – faster than any other continent.
A new study led by researchers at ETH Zurich and the Paul Scherrer Institute PSI shows that electric vehicles, combined with solar-powered off-grid charging systems, could be economically competitive in many African countries well before 2040.
“Many models have assumed that combustion engine vehicles will continue to dominate in Africa through mid-century,” stated lead author Bessie Noll, a senior researcher in the Energy and Technology Policy Group at ETH Zurich.
“Our findings show that, under certain conditions, e-mobility is feasible sooner than many people think.”
Barriers to adopting EVs in Africa
According to the researchers, the biggest obstacle to the mass adoption of EVs in Africa is financing, rather than technology.
In many African countries, loans are expensive because investments are considered risky. This affects electric vehicles since the initial outlay is higher.
Noll said: “If financing costs can be reduced, the transition will accelerate dramatically. Potential options include government guarantees, new financing models or international support.
“E-mobility could also create new economic opportunities for Africa through local assembly, new services, or jobs along the supply chain.”
The study also highlights the significant differences within Africa. In countries like Botswana or South Africa, where financing conditions are more stable, electric vehicles could become competitive sooner. In countries like Guinea, where financing costs are high, the transition will likely be slower.
Solar power is the key to mass uptake
A key aspect of the study is vehicle charging. In many regions of Africa, the electrical grid is unreliable or non-existent.
Therefore, researchers analysed 52 African countries and more than 2,000 locations for a scenario in which electric vehicles are charged using dedicated solar power facilities and stationary batteries, independent of the grid.
Specifically, the team’s calculations show that a compact solar system is enough for a small car that travels around 50 kilometres (approx. 30 miles) per day.
The cost of charging accounts for only a very small portion of the total vehicle costs. In many places, switching to electric scooters and motorbikes already makes good financial sense.
Synthetic fuels are not an option
The researchers also compared electric vehicles to cars powered by synthetic fuels.
These vehicles perform significantly worse. Even under very optimistic assumptions, such as production using highly affordable solar power in Chile, the costs remain high.
Christian Moretti, a research scientist in the Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis at PSI, explained: “Synthetic fuels are urgently needed in other areas, such as aviation and industry. They don’t make sense as a priority for adopting EVs in Africa.”
Assessing the impact of EVs on worldwide public financing
A second study, which Bessie Noll is involved in, reveals another dimension of the electric vehicle transition.
This study examines the implications of the global transition to electric vehicles for public finances worldwide.
Today, taxes on petrol and diesel generate around $900 billion per year worldwide. In many countries, this revenue finances road building and, more broadly, transport infrastructure. With the rise of electric vehicles, this revenue is at risk of disappearing.
“The transition to electric vehicles makes sense in terms of climate policy but poses difficult budgetary questions for a lot of countries,” Noll noted. Early tax reforms and international support could help to avoid financing gaps.
Together, the studies show that the adoption of EVs in Africa is technically and economically feasible, but it will require forward-thinking policies that take a holistic view of energy, transport, and financial issues to achieve its full potential.
